ОЦІНЮВАННЯ РІВНЯ ФІНАНСОВОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ФІНАНСОВОЇ ГЛОБАЛІЗАЦІЇ

Abstract

The article is devoted to methodological aspects of evaluation level of financial security Ukraine in terms of financial globalization. The state of financial security of Ukraine was analyzed in the context of its key elements, including banking, budgetary, monetary, currency, debt security, as well as every security of the non-banking financial sector. There are several methodological approaches along on assessment of the financial security of Ukraine, namely Guidelines of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine (2013), methodology on the Global Competitiveness Index, proposed by the World Economic Forum (1979), as well as Guidelines for experts of the National Institute of International Security of Ukraine (2003). The analysis of methodological approaches to determining the thresholds of financial security indicators has allowed to state that thresholds can have one of three levels of assessment: minimum permissible, maximum permissible and deviation from the average value for the period. At the same time, methodological problems regarding the thresholds of financial security indicators of the state, in particular selectivity and differences in methodological substantiation of criteria and their thresholds, remain. Taking into account the normalized values of indicators and their weighting coefficients, the article formed integral indicators of each element of financial security of Ukraine for 2014–2018, calculated the overall financial security indicator of Ukraine, and proved that as of December 31, 2018, the level of financial security of Ukraine was at a dangerous level. The authors of the scientific article described ways to improve methodological approaches to assessing the level of financial security of Ukraine, in particular, adding indicators and risks of financial behavior of the population related to the savings of the population and its operations in the credit and currency markets. The study made forecasting of financial security of Ukraine in 2020–2021 years using techniques and identify the main trends (trend) series and noted the positive trend to enhance the financial security of Ukraine. Also the article found that globalization processes affect all components of the financial security of the state, creating threats to the development of the national economy. The main directions for improving the process of assessing the financial security of Ukraine in the conditions of globalization of the financial markets include: the use of the indicator of the financial behavior of the population in the credit and currency markets in assessing such components of financial security as banking, currency and monetary; implementation of principles of openness and flexibility in the indicative assessment of financial security of Ukraine; organization of monitoring changes in the system of threats and updating of their assessment.