MODELING MIGRATION PROCESSES UNDER THE UNCERTAINTY OF ECONOMIC POLICY
Abstract
The article is devoted to the study of the problem of modern migration processes and the assessment of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on migration in EU countries. The structure of migration was evaluated and the main trends of migration processes were determined. Long-term research has shown that international migration is uneven across the globe, but is shaped by economic, geographical, demographic and other factors, leading to different migration patterns, such as migration "corridors" that have formed over the years. In recent years, there has been a deepening of existing migration models, as opportunities have been realized through economic growth and reform, trade liberalization and long-term stability. The influence of migration on social processes is determined. The connection between economic, political and social issues on the one hand and migration on the other is illustrated. The importance of digitalization in migration processes is shown. The scale and pace of international migration is difficult for forecasting, as migration processes are closely linked to unpredictable events (such as economic crisis or military conflict) and long-term trends (demographic changes, economic development, digitalization and access to transport).The unprecedented pace of change in the geopolitical, social, environmental and technological spheres has led to the pace of change exceeding all expectations and projections. Such changes often lead to unexpected and undesirable consequences. Within these shifts, international migration is increasingly being used as a political tool, undermining democracy and creating understandable fears in the public, resulting from the accelerating pace of change and the growing uncertainty of our time. The influence of economic policy uncertainty on migration processes is investigated. To explore the impact of policy uncertainty on aggregate investment, production, and employment, they use a new approach - the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU). Regression models have been constructed to conclude that there is no direct correlation between economic policy uncertainty and migration over the relevant time period.
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